Thursday, October 9, 2008

Can the fall be stopped? The key is the American Consumer. Unfortunately, the American Consumer appears to have woken up from a long dream and realized that he doesn't make enough money to pay for everything (especially his debts), and is scared he is going to lose his job. Without spending, everything goes South.

As an example, GM, as of the start of September, was down to $14 billion in cash, and they are probably closing in on $10 billion quickly. Last year at about this time they had about $30 billion. With car sales falling like the Hindenberg in September, and probably even worse in November, GM will probably be out of funds somewhere between January to March '08. And the other 2 big US auto manufacturers are doing even worse.

If the American Consumer doesn't start spending again, the US auto industry will never be the same. Think how this effects their suppliers, and their dealers. It snowballs. This is only one American industry facing hard times. There are plenty of others.

Can the American Consumer hit the gas hard enough and soon enough to pull out of this dive? I don't know, but I doubt it.

No comments: